Brexit’in Artçı Şoku: Hangi Firma 100 Mağazasını Kapatıyor

İngiliz tüketiciler, Brexit’le birlikte, ekonomiye ilişkin beklentiler konusunda endişe ediyor, bu da  uzmanlar tarafından büyümeye daha da fazla etki edebileceği yorumların neden oluyor.

Hane halkı bir yıldan uzun bir süredir genişlemeyi sürdürdü, ancak sadece 2017’nin enflasyon dalgası sırasında harcamalarını sürdürmek için daha az tasarruf ettikler, büyümenin zayıflamasıyla ilgili endişelerinin ve iş güvenliğinin artması durumunda bunu yapmaya daha az istekli olabilecekleri belirtiliyor.

GfK’nın aylık endeksine göre, beklentilerin bir ölçüsü 20 yıllık ortalamanın altında ve tüketiciler “ekonominin genel durumu hakkında kararlı bir şekilde durgunluk gösteriyor.” En son ülke çapında konut fiyat raporunda görüldüğü üzere daha zayıf bir emlak piyasası, korkuları  pekiştiriyor.

İngiltere Merkez Bankası’nın Perşembe günü bildirdiği ipotek onayları nisan ayında azaldı. Buna karşılık, tüketici borçlanması, geçen ay 2016’dan bu yana en yüksek seviyeye yükseldi. Bu da, tüketicilerin harcamalarında yeniden işlem yapmayı henüz taahhüt etmediklerini gösteriyor.

Bloomberg Economics’ten Dan Hanson, tasarrufun sürdürülebilir bir seviyenin çok altında olduğunu ve bu durumun bir işsizlik riski yaratacağını söylüyor, “Geçtiğimiz yıl yaşayan bir standart sıkışıklığa cevap olarak tüketiciler harcamaya devam ettikçe tasarruf oranı uçuruma sürüklendi . Bu inatçılık, Birleşik Krallık’ın en büyük harcama yapanlarını istikrarsız bir pozisyonda bıraktı.”

Bu, tüketicilerin daha fazla tasarruf yapmalarına neden olacak bir şok anlamına geliyor. Yani harcamalar azalırsa ekonomik büyüme için önemli bir destek ortadan kalkar. Bu, Britanya’nın halihazırda baskı altında olan ve daha geniş ekonomiye sahip perakendecilere daha fazla darbe olacaktır. Bloomberg Economics, İngiltere’nin “durgunlukla flört edebileceğini” tahmin ediyor.

Mağaza ve market zincirlerinin sahibi John Lewis Partnership, Çarşamba günü yaptığı açıklamada, bu yılın şu ana kadar satışların% 1,5 oranında arttığını ve geçen yıl bu oranın% 2,7 oranında olduğunu söyledi. 134 yıllık alışveriş bölgesi arenası olan Marks & Spencer, 100’den fazla büyük mağazasını kapatıyor.

GfK raporunda daha da umut verici bir şekilde, Mayıs ayında genel güven artmış ve tüketiciler kişisel finansları konusunda biraz daha iyimser. Bu, enflasyondaki bir yavaşlama ve ücret artışındaki bir toparlanma ile sonuçlandı.

Tasarruf oranındaki son düşüş, algılanan geçici bir reel gelir şokuna doğal bir tepki iken, Bloomberg Economics, AB’yi terk etmenin uzun vadeli ekonomik etkisinden dolayı aslında geçici olamayacağına işaret ediyor.

Hanson, “Haneler, son 18 ay içinde yaşanan gerçek gelir şoku geçiciymiş gibi davrandı, öyle değil” dedi.

“Bu değerlendirmeyle ilgili sorun, AB’den ayrılma kararı ile hane halklarının daha fakir hale gelmesidir. Tasarruf oranı süresiz olarak düşemez. ”

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istanbulpostcomtr@gmail.com

 

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