Büyük Kabus: “Bankalar Yine Batacak”

european_central_bankBanka iflasları kriz korkusunu yeniden gündeme getirdi. Krizin atlatılmayıp sadece ‘ertelendiğini’ savunanlar haklı mı çıkacak?

 
Bulgaristan’da yaşanan banka skandalının ardından açıklama yapan Bulgar hükümeti, söz konusu bankanın kurtarılması için borçlanmaya gidileceğini ve bunun için uluslararası finans kuruluşlarından yaklaşık 1 milyar Euro talep edileceğini duyurdu. Bulgaristan gibi Avrupa Birliği’nin en yoksul ülkelerinden biri bu büyüklükte bir borçlanma kararı aldığında, birliğin tamamında mali yapı sarsılıyor. Söz konusu borçlanma gerçekleştiği anda Bulgaristan’ın içinde bulunduğumuz yıl ile ilgili bütçe açığı öngörüsünü de düzeltmesi gerekiyor. Uzmanlar yüzde 1,8 olarak beklenen açığın, borçlanma sonrası yüzde 3 seviyesine çıkacağını tahmin ediyorlar.

Almanya Merkez Bankası Yönetim Kurulu’ndan Andreas Dombret, bu tarz gelişmelerin gelecekte daha sık yaşanacağını öne sürerek, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri ve Avrupa Birliği’nde faiz oranlarının tarihin en düşük seviyelerinde olduğunu ve bu durumun banka sektöründe krizler yaşanmasını kolaylaştırdığını dile getirdi.

 
Dombret’e göre düşük faiz, düşük enflasyon, paranın düşük oynak değeri ve yüksek likidite ortamı, mali piyasalarda daha fazla kar ve kazanç elde etme hırsını yeniden canlandırıyor.

 
Bankalara güven pamuk ipliğine bağlı

Günümüzde herhangi bir banka ile ilgili ortaya atılan olumsuz bir dedikodu bile feci sonuçlara, örneğin Bank-Run denen müşterilerin, bankanın batmasından korkarak paralarını çekmesine yol açabilir. Normal durumlarda hiçbir banka, müşterilerinin kitleler halinde paralarını çekmesini kaldırmaz ve gerçekten iflas eder. Köln Üniversitesi’nde görev yapan İktisat Bilimcisi Thomas Hartmann-Wendels’e göre de yaşanan herhangi bir krizin bankalar arasında bulaşıcı olma tehlikesi her zaman büyük. Bir banka sarsıntı yaşadığında diğer bankalara olan güven azalıyor, ya da bankalar kendi aralarında kredi ilişkisi içinde olduklarından kriz bir bankadan diğerine sıçrıyor. Wendels bunları bankacılık sisteminin, real ekonomide bilinmeyen kendine has hastalıkları olarak nitelendiriyor.

 
Bulgaristan’da yaşanan kriz nedeni ile bu ülkenin merkez bankası başkanı İvan İskrow geçtiğimiz Salı günü istifasını sundu. Bulgar hükümeti de, ülkedeki banka sisteminin, Avrupa bankalar birliğine katılmasına karar verdi. Euro bölgesi ülkelerin maliye bakanları, krizde olan bir bankayı kurtarmak için vergi mükelleflerinin yanı vatandaşların yükümlülük altına girmesini önlemeye çalışıyorlar. Yeni uygulamada, olası krizlerin çözümü için tüm bankaların belli bir ödeme yapması ile oluşturulacak olan fondan yararlanılması planlanıyor.

 
55 milyar Euro’luk bir birikime sahip olması tasarlanan bu fonun ve bankalar birliğinin devreye girmesinden önce Avrupa’nın en büyük 128 bankasının bilançoları gözden geçirilecek ve bir stres testine tabi tutulacaklar. Almanya Merkez Bankası Yönetim Kurulu Üyesi Andreas Dombret sözkonusu uygulama ile, bu yıl Kasım ayında, bankaları denetleme sisteminin Kasım ayında devreye girmesinden önce, tüm bankalardaki zayıf noktaların tespit edileceğini bildirdi.
Krize giren her banka kurtarılmalı mı?

 
Ancak Dombret’e göre bir bankanın stres testinden başarı ile geçmesi o bankanın kriz tehlikesi yaşamayacağı anlamına gelmiyor. Denetleyicilerin test sırasında nelere dikkat ettiklerinin önemli olduğunu vurgulayan Dombret, tıp dünyasından verdiği bir örnek ile, bir virüsü bulmak için muayene yapıldığında olabilecek tüm virüslerin görülemeyeceğini, sadece var olması en muhtemel virüslere odaklanılacağını ifade ediyor.

Andreas Dombret’e göre bankaların her zaman ne pahasına olursa olsun kurtarılması gerekmiyor. İçinde bulunduğumuz serbest piyasa sisteminin temel prensiplerinden birinin de gerektiği gibi çalışamayan bankaların ve şirketlerin ortadan kalkması olduğunu ifade eden Dombret, başarısız bankaların kapatılmasından yana bir tavır sergiliyor.

ÖNERDİĞİMİZ LİNKLER

Yunanistan’ın can simidi turizm

 
2014 yılında Yunanistan’a ilk kez 21 milyondan fazla turist bekleniyor. Bu, 2013 yılına kıyasla yüzde 10’dan fazla bir artış demek. Bu artışın ülkenin turizm gelirlerine de yansıyacağı tahmin ediliyor.

 
Çinli yatırımcı peşinde.

 
Almanya Başbakanı Angela Merkel Çin’e yedinci resmi ziyaretini yapıyor. Çin’in Almanya’da yatırım yapmasını sağlamak için Merkel’ın elinden geleni yapacağı söyleniyor

 
AB’yi bekleyen iki tehlike.

 
Borç kriziyle sarsılan Euro Bölgesi’ni iki büyük tehlike bekliyor. İlki enflasyon oranındaki aşırı düşüş, diğeri ise ortak para biriminin değer kazanması. AMB her iki tehlikeyi de savuşturmanın yollarını arıyor.

 

 

 

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