Euro Krizi Kapıda!

45529Büyüme hızı düşüyor, işsizlik artıyor, borsa endeksleri baş aşağı gidiyor, deflasyon tehlikesi artıyor. Önlem alınmazsa Euro projesi tehlikeye girebilir.Konjonktürle ilgili rakamların hayal kırıklığı yaratması, borsa endekslerinin erimesi ve işsizliğin artması: Avrupa krizi altlatamadı. Gerekli tedbirler alınmadığı takdirde ortak para birimi Euro’nun tehlikeye gireceğini söyleyen iktisatçılar çoğunlukta.

 
Avrupa’nın ekonomik uçuruma yuvarlanma tehlikesinin savuşmadığını söyleyen Saader Bankası piyasa analiz bölümü başkanı Robert Halver DW’ye verdiği mülakatta krizin sadece şekil değiştirdiğini söyledi. Halver, “Euro krizi şekil değiştiriyor. Önce karşımızda koskoca bir devlet borçları krizi vardı. Şimdi ise Euro Bölgesi konjonktür krizi tehlikesi peyda oldu. Çünkü çoğu Euro ülkesindeki ekonomik faaliyetlerin önünü açmak için gerekli olan reformlar yapılmıyor. Durum böyle olunca istihdamı arttırıcı yatırımlar erteleniyor. Avrupa’nın ekonomiyi istikrara kavuşturmak amacıyla devlet borçlarının kabartıldığı günlere geri dönme tehlikesiyle karşı karşıyayız” dedi.
Borçlar konjonktürü unutturdu.

 
2006 yılında küresel finans krizinin patlak vereceğini doğru tahmin eden iktisatçı yazar Max Otte bizleri bekleyen ekonomik durgunluğun Lehman’ın 2008 yılındaki iflasından çok daha kötü sonuçlar doğurabileceği görüşünde. Max Otte endişelerini DW’ye şöyle özetledi: “Altı yıl önceki kriz paniğe yol açmıştı. Küresel finans sistemi tamamen çökebilirdi. Bu problemi parayı ucuzlatarak çözdük. Ama yapısal bozuklukları ortadan kaldırıp sorunların üzerine gitmediğimiz için olumsuz trendler girdabına yakalandık: Devlet borçları artmaya devam ediyor. Avrupa’nın güneyindeki depresyon yüzünden işsizlik oranı yüzde 50’lere fırladı. Büyümeyi teşvik politikaları para etmiyor. Rusya’ya akılsızca açtığımız ekonomik savaş öncelikle Alman ve Avusturya ekonomilerini vuruyor. IŞİD ve Ortadoğu krizleri beklentileri daha da bozuyor. Avrupa’daki siyasi istikrarsızlık da ABD’ye yarıyor. Büyük tröstler yatırımlarını Avrupa’dan Amerika’ya kaydırıyor.
Almanya’nın en tartışmalı iktisat otoritelerinden, Münih ifo Ekonomik Araştırmalar Enstitüsü Başkanı Hans-Werner Sinn Avrupa’yı uzun bir ekonomik durgunluk döneminin beklediğini, Güney Avrupa ülkelerindeki durumun çabuk toparlanmaya imkan tanımadığını ve krizin henüz atlatılamadığını söylüyor.
İfo Enstitüsü, İtalya’daki sermaye kaçışının, Avrupa Merkez Bankası’nın (AMB) devlet borç tahvillerine sınırsız alım garantisi vermeden önceki düzeyde seyrettiğini saptamış. Alacaklıların kredi vadesini uzatmaması nedeniyle İtalya Ağustos ve Eylül aylarında 67 milyar euro kaybetmiş. Profesör Sinn para kaçışını sermaye piyasasının yeniden telaşlanmaya başlamasına yoruyor.
Avrupa krizden nasıl kurtulur?
AMB’nin sınırsız alım garantisi Euro Bölgesi ülkelerinin yeniden ucuz kredi bulmasını sağlamış ve aynı zamanda borçlanma hastalığını da nüksettirmişti. Bu sayede sorunlar örtülüyor ama çözülmüş olmuyor. Ek borçların kapatılması giderek zorlaşıyor. Analiz uzmanı Halver borcu borçla kapatmanın adeta alışkanlık haline geldiğini ve kolay yolu seçmenin uzun vadede büyük sorunlara yol açabileceği uyarısında bulunuyor.
Robert Halver aynı zamanda Almanya hükümetinin ek borçlanmayı 2015 yılına kadar sıfırlamakta ısrar etmesini eleştiriyor. Halver, canlanmanın ne kadar çabuk durgunluğa döndüğünün 2008 yılında tecrübe edildiğini söylerken, Hans-Werner Sinn kısa adımlarla bir yere varılamayacağı için Güney Avrupa ülkelerinin birikmiş borçlarının affedilmesinden başka çare kalmadığını belirtiyor.
Max Otte, Merkez Bankası’nın sürekli olarak piyasaya ucuz para sürmesinden ibaret olan Amerikan usulü krizle mücadeleden vazgeçilip, Euro’nun yapısındaki arızaların tamir edilmesi gerektiğini ifade ediyor. Max Otte krizden çıkış stratejisinde benimsenmesi gereken öncelikleri şöyle sıralıyor: “Ekonomisi batan ülkeler AB’den değil ama Euro Bölgesi’nden çıkarılmalı. Rusya ile yaptırım savaşına son verilmeli. Ortak para birimi yeniden yapılandırılmalı. Avrupa Birliği ABD’ye bağımlılıktan kurtulup, Amerikalıların her dediğini yapmaktan vazgeçmeli.”
Büyüme hızı düşüyor, işsizlik artıyor, borsa endeksleri baş aşağı gidiyor, deflasyon tehlikesi artıyor. Önlem alınmazsa Euro projesi tehlikeye girebilir.Konjonktürle ilgili rakamların hayal kırıklığı yaratması, borsa endekslerinin erimesi ve işsizliğin artması: Avrupa krizi altlatamadı. Gerekli tedbirler alınmadığı takdirde ortak para birimi Euro’nun tehlikeye gireceğini söyleyen iktisatçılar çoğunlukta.
Avrupa’nın ekonomik uçuruma yuvarlanma tehlikesinin savuşmadığını söyleyen Saader Bankası piyasa analiz bölümü başkanı Robert Halver DW’ye verdiği mülakatta krizin sadece şekil değiştirdiğini söyledi. Halver, “Euro krizi şekil değiştiriyor. Önce karşımızda koskoca bir devlet borçları krizi vardı. Şimdi ise Euro Bölgesi konjonktür krizi tehlikesi peyda oldu. Çünkü çoğu Euro ülkesindeki ekonomik faaliyetlerin önünü açmak için gerekli olan reformlar yapılmıyor. Durum böyle olunca istihdamı arttırıcı yatırımlar erteleniyor. Avrupa’nın ekonomiyi istikrara kavuşturmak amacıyla devlet borçlarının kabartıldığı günlere geri dönme tehlikesiyle karşı karşıyayız” dedi.
Borçlar konjonktürü unutturdu.
2006 yılında küresel finans krizinin patlak vereceğini doğru tahmin eden iktisatçı yazar Max Otte bizleri bekleyen ekonomik durgunluğun Lehman’ın 2008 yılındaki iflasından çok daha kötü sonuçlar doğurabileceği görüşünde. Max Otte endişelerini DW’ye şöyle özetledi: “Altı yıl önceki kriz paniğe yol açmıştı. Küresel finans sistemi tamamen çökebilirdi. Bu problemi parayı ucuzlatarak çözdük. Ama yapısal bozuklukları ortadan kaldırıp sorunların üzerine gitmediğimiz için olumsuz trendler girdabına yakalandık: Devlet borçları artmaya devam ediyor. Avrupa’nın güneyindeki depresyon yüzünden işsizlik oranı yüzde 50’lere fırladı. Büyümeyi teşvik politikaları para etmiyor. Rusya’ya akılsızca açtığımız ekonomik savaş öncelikle Alman ve Avusturya ekonomilerini vuruyor. IŞİD ve Ortadoğu krizleri beklentileri daha da bozuyor. Avrupa’daki siyasi istikrarsızlık da ABD’ye yarıyor. Büyük tröstler yatırımlarını Avrupa’dan Amerika’ya kaydırıyor.
Almanya’nın en tartışmalı iktisat otoritelerinden, Münih ifo Ekonomik Araştırmalar Enstitüsü Başkanı Hans-Werner Sinn Avrupa’yı uzun bir ekonomik durgunluk döneminin beklediğini, Güney Avrupa ülkelerindeki durumun çabuk toparlanmaya imkan tanımadığını ve krizin henüz atlatılamadığını söylüyor.
İfo Enstitüsü, İtalya’daki sermaye kaçışının, Avrupa Merkez Bankası’nın (AMB) devlet borç tahvillerine sınırsız alım garantisi vermeden önceki düzeyde seyrettiğini saptamış. Alacaklıların kredi vadesini uzatmaması nedeniyle İtalya Ağustos ve Eylül aylarında 67 milyar euro kaybetmiş. Profesör Sinn para kaçışını sermaye piyasasının yeniden telaşlanmaya başlamasına yoruyor.
Avrupa krizden nasıl kurtulur?
AMB’nin sınırsız alım garantisi Euro Bölgesi ülkelerinin yeniden ucuz kredi bulmasını sağlamış ve aynı zamanda borçlanma hastalığını da nüksettirmişti. Bu sayede sorunlar örtülüyor ama çözülmüş olmuyor. Ek borçların kapatılması giderek zorlaşıyor. Analiz uzmanı Halver borcu borçla kapatmanın adeta alışkanlık haline geldiğini ve kolay yolu seçmenin uzun vadede büyük sorunlara yol açabileceği uyarısında bulunuyor.
Robert Halver aynı zamanda Almanya hükümetinin ek borçlanmayı 2015 yılına kadar sıfırlamakta ısrar etmesini eleştiriyor. Halver, canlanmanın ne kadar çabuk durgunluğa döndüğünün 2008 yılında tecrübe edildiğini söylerken, Hans-Werner Sinn kısa adımlarla bir yere varılamayacağı için Güney Avrupa ülkelerinin birikmiş borçlarının affedilmesinden başka çare kalmadığını belirtiyor.
Max Otte, Merkez Bankası’nın sürekli olarak piyasaya ucuz para sürmesinden ibaret olan Amerikan usulü krizle mücadeleden vazgeçilip, Euro’nun yapısındaki arızaların tamir edilmesi gerektiğini ifade ediyor. Max Otte krizden çıkış stratejisinde benimsenmesi gereken öncelikleri şöyle sıralıyor: “Ekonomisi batan ülkeler AB’den değil ama Euro Bölgesi’nden çıkarılmalı. Rusya ile yaptırım savaşına son verilmeli. Ortak para birimi yeniden yapılandırılmalı. Avrupa Birliği ABD’ye bağımlılıktan kurtulup, Amerikalıların her dediğini yapmaktan vazgeçmeli.”

 

 

 

 

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