IMF Türkiye’yi Neden Uyardı?

iiiiiiiiiiiiiiUluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) Türkiye’den, dış kaynaklı dengesizlikleri azaltması için mali ve parasal politikalarını sıkılaştırmasını istedi. Dış kaynaklı dengesizlik gelişmekte olan piyasalardan sermaye çıkışıyla son zamanlarda artmıştı.Geçen hafta Türkiye’yi ziyaret eden IMF heyeti,  “Gelişmiş ülkelerin para politikalarının piyasalarda yeniden fiyatlandırılması, Türkiye’nin temel kırılgan noktalarından biri olan dış kaynaklı dengesizliğini daha da belirginleştirdi,” sonucuna vardı.
Heyet, Cuma günü yaptığı yazılı açıklamada “Bu tür bir ortamda ve dış kaynaklı finansmanın yüksek olacağı önümüzdeki birkaç yılda, sermaye akışının tersine dönmesi veya zayıflaması Türkiye için büyük bir sorun oluşturmakta” görüşünü savundu.

IMF, Türkiye’nin cari açıklarının, bu yılki Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasılası’nın %7’sine yaklaşacağını, altın ithalatı nedeniyle de 2014’de aynı seviyede kalacağını öngördü.
IMF’nin tahminlerine göre, enflasyon, Türk Lirası’nın değerinin düşmesiyle birlikte, 2013 ve 2014’te hedef rakam olan %5’in üzerinde seyredecek.

Türkiye,  Amerika Merkez Bankası’nın varlık alımlarını yavaşlatacağının sinyalini vermesinden bu yana sermaye hareketlerinden en fazla zarar gören ülkeler arasında yer aldı. Türk Lirası, dolar karşısında büyük oranda değer kaybetti.

Merkez Bankası Başkanı Erdem Başçı, geçen hafta yaptığı açıklamada, liranın değerinin düşmesinin enflasyon hedeflerini zorlayacağını söyledi. Merkez Bankası Başkanı Başçı, bankanın, gerekirse, ek para sıkılaştırıcı önlemler alacağını da kaydetti.
Başçı, 5 Eylül günü dolar karşısında en düşük seviyeye inen Lira’nın, değerinin çok altında olduğunu da belirtti.

Amerika Merkez Bankası’nın varlık alımlarını yavaşlatma kararını bir süre daha yürürlüğe koymama kararı her ne kadar Türk Merkez Bankası’nı rahatlatsa da, bazı ekonomistler, Türkiye’nin dev cari açıkları ve küresel çaptaki sermaye hareketlerinin yarattığı baskı nedeniyle liranın değerinin düşmeye devam edeceği tahmininde bulunuyor.

IMF de daha sıkı mali ve para politikalarının dış finansman ihtiyacını ve enflasyonu azaltacağını söylüyor.

IMF uzmanları, Türkiye’nin döviz rezervlerini satmaması ve bu yola sadece aşırı kırılgan durumlarda başvurmasını önerdi.

Merkez Bankası, son üç ayda 50 milyar dolarlık döviz rezervlerinden 9 milyarlık kısmını sattı.

IMF, Türkiye’nin iç tüketim talebinin bu yıl %3,8’lik bir büyümeyi sağlayacağını, gelecek yıl da bu rakamın %3,5 olacağını tahmin ediyor.

 

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