IŞİD Zayıflıyor mu?

isid3-002Amerika ve diğer koalisyon güçlerinin IŞİD’e karşı yaptığı çalışmaların örgüt üzerindeki etkisi yavaş da olsa görülmeye başladı ancak uzmanlar bunun örgütün çöküşe geçtiği anlamına gelmediği uyarısında bulunuyor.

Ancak çatışmalar sürerken, Brookings Enstitüsü’nden J. M Berger gibi terör uzmanları aşırı olumlu düşünmemek gerektiğini söylüyor: “Bence çarkın hangi yöne döndüğünü söylemek için çok erken. Örgütün meşruluğu açısından Musul ve Rakka’ya tutunmak çok önemli. Bu iki kenti alıncaya kadar birçok kayıp vermesine rağmen IŞİD meşru bir güç olarak görünmeyi sürdürebilir.”

Berger ve diğer uzmanlar IŞİD’in kayıplar yaşamasına rağmen Irak hükümeti, Kürt güçleri ya da Şii milislerin kazandığı hiçbir çarpışmanın öldürücü darbe niteliğinde olmadığını söylüyor.

Uzmanlar, grubun içindeki bölünmeler ve gruptan ayrılmaya çalışanların idam edildiği yönündeki haberlerin ise abartılı olabileceğine dikkati çekiyor.

Christopher Harmer, “Kendi içlerindeki muhalifleri öldürmeleri bence bir zayıflık göstergesi değil. Bu yalnızca totaliter bir rejimin göstergesi ve bu da onların yönetim tarzı” şeklinde konuşuyor.

Savaş Çalışmaları Enstitüsü’nden Christopher Harmer’a göre, IŞİD’in geri çekilmeye itilmesi bile tam olarak avantaj getirmeyebilir: “El yapımı patlayıcılar, intihar saldırıları ve bombalı araç kullanımı gibi yöntemler Amerika’nın Irak’taki işini zorlaştırmıştı. Bunlara karşı koymak peşmerge ve Irak güvenlik güçleri için çok daha zor.”

Amerikalı üst düzey istihbarat yetkilileri IŞİD’in sonundan bahsetmekten çekiniyor. CIA Başkanı John Brennan mücadelede ilerleme kaydedildiğini söylüyor: “IŞİD’in durumunun kötüye gittiği konusunda çok ciddi belirtiler gördüğümüzü düşünüyorum. Ancak bu örgütün sonunun geldiğini göstermiyor.”

Birçok kişi IŞİD’in köşeye sıkıştıkça daha kanlı ve daha tehlikeli hale gelmesinden kaygı duyuyor.


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