OPEC ‘de Üretim Konusunda “Gevşeme” Olabilir

Sadece birkaç hafta önce, OPEC ülkelerinden üst düzey yetkililerin, piyasanın üretim kesintilerinin 2018 yılı sonuna kadar yürürlükte kalacağını ve hatta gelecek yıllara kadar uzatma olasılığının bulunduğunu garanti eden açıklamalar yayınladı.

Ancak şimdi, Viyana’nın sadece birkaç hafta sonra yaptığı toplantıda OPEC’in  üretim sınırlarını kaldırma fikrini aniden gündeme getireceği haberleri gündeme geliyor.

Petrol piyasası yıllardan beri daha sıkı. OECD petrol stokları Mart ayında beş yıllık ortalamaya geriledi ve verilerin mevcut olduğu son ay olduğu için stokları ortalama seviyenin altında.  Brent fiyatları 2014’ten bu yana ilk kez 80 dolar’a kadar yükseldi ve Venezüella, Angola, Nijerya’daki kesintiler ve potansiyel olarak İran petrol piyasasına stres gönderiyor.

Suudi petrol bakanı Khalid al-Falih daha yüksek fiyatların arz güdümlü olduğunu, yani arzın ve talebin temelini oluşturan abartılı bir artış olduğunu söyledi. Birçok durumda, OPEC’in kesintileri yerinde tutma kararlılığını tekrarladı ve OPEC ve Rusya’nın piyasanın muhtemelen yönetilmesi için uzun vadeli bir düzenlemeyi güçlendireceğini belirten sinyaller gönderdi.

Şüphesiz, piyasayı sıkılaştırmaya yönelik motivasyon, büyük ölçüde Suudi Arabistan’ın petrol piyasası için çok güçlü bir itici güç kaynağı olan, halka arzından kaynaklanıyor.

Ancak, birdenbire grubun kararındaki çatlaklar genişliyor.  Suudi Arabistan, Rusya ve OPEC’in geri kalanı “bu hafta OPEC ve OPEC olmayan üretim hedefiyle aşırı uyumun kontrollü bir şekilde rahatlamasını tartışabilir. 22 Haziran’da Viyana’da yapılacak toplantıda “gevşeme” nin “büyük bir olasılık” olacağı belirtiliyor.

Bir süredir Venezüella’nın kötüleşmesi, OPEC’in geri kalanı için bir nimet oldu ğu belirtiliyorve bu da üyelerin petrol fiyatlarının daha yüksek gelir elde etmesine izin verdi. Fakat bu noktada petrol piyasası çok sıkı bir şekilde sıkılaşıyor. İran’da kesinti olasılığı denklemi değiştirdi, çünkü kayıplar kaçınılmaz olmasa da, artık hata payı az olan bir petrol pazarında belirleyici olacak.

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