IDC has published its report which corroborates the figures from Canalys: the smartphone market suffered particularly in the first quarter of 2023, with a decline of 14.6% compared to 2022. Xiaomi recorded the largest drop.

It’s no secret that the smartphone market has been going through difficult times for more than a year now. The Canalys and IDC firms also agree on the general finding for 2022, with sales down 11.3% and 11%, respectively. Unfortunately, the first quarter of 2023 is no exception.

Already on April 21, Canalys presented worrying figures: according to him, the market contracted by 12% compared to the previous year in Q1. For its part, IDC is even more alarmist and is betting on a drop of 14.6%, for 268.6 million units sold. This is the 7th consecutive quarter in decline.

A recovery expected in early 2024

This gloomy dynamic is due to both sluggish demand, an inflationary context and macroeconomic uncertainties, can we read in the report. “Although we are optimistic about the recovery by the end of the year, the next 3 to 6 months will be difficult”, warns Nabila Popal, research director at IDC’s Worldwide Tracker division.

And to continue: “ Everyone is worried about when the tide will turn, and who wants to be the first to take advantage of the recovery. But the situation is delicate. Anyone who launches too early would drown in excess inventory”, she analyzes, before betting on a recovery on new growth by the end of 2023, or the beginning of 2024.

In addition, IDC specifies that smartphones positioned in the middle and entry-level have suffered the most. This is where the competition is the strongest, and where the manufacturers’ margins are the lowest. The report gives interesting geographical elements, with a drop of 12%, 11.5% and 9.5% in China, the USA and Europe, respectively.

Xiaomi, the huge fall

On the manufacturers’ side, all the indicators are red, as you can see in the table below.

As we can see, Apple is the one that limits breakage the most and finds itself in a pocket handkerchief with Samsung, 2 points apart. Conversely, Xiaomi is experiencing a disaster scenario with a fall of 23.3%, followed closely by a suffering Samsung (-18.9%) as well as Vivo (-16.2%).