“Trump Kur Savaşı Başlattı Sonuçları Korkunç Olacak”

ABD Başkanı Donald Trump, Cuma günü Twitter’dan yayınladığı mesajında, Çin ve Avrupa Birliği  “para birimlerini ve faiz oranlarını manipüle etmek” le  suçladı.

Yuan Cuma günü ilk kez  6.80’i geçti.

Uzmanlara göre dünyanın en büyük iki ekonomisi gittikçe artan ve zorlu bir savaş  oyununda yeni bir cephe açarken, sonuçlar korkunç olabilir. ABD ve Çin para birimlerinin çok ötesine geçebilir. Pekin ve Washington mevcut küresel mali düzeni tehdit ettiği için, özkaynaklardan petrolün gelişmekte olan piyasa varlıklarına kadar her şey maddi hasar tehlikesiyle karşı karşıya.

Excer Data LLC’yi kurmadan önce, beş yıl boyunca Wall Street’in en üst düzey döviz stratejisti Jens Nordvig, “Trump’ın son 24 saat içindeki retoriği, bunu kesinlikle bir ticaret savaşından para savaşına kaydırıyor.”Dedi.

Uluslararası Finans Enstitüsü’nün baş ekonomisti ve Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’in eski baş döviz stratejisti olan Robin Brooks’a göre, Çin‘in 2015 yılında yuan’a şok devalüasyonu, bunun  nasıl görüneceğine dair iyi bir şablon sunuyor. Risk varlıkları ve petrol fiyatların artmasıyla ilgili endişeler, muhtemelen Rusya rublesi, Kolombiya pezosu ve Malezyalı ringgiti başta olmak üzere emtia ihraç eden ülkelerin para birimlerine çarparak, Asya’nın geri kalanını aşağı çekmek zorunda kalacak.

Brooks, “Asya merkez bankaları başlangıçta müdahale yoluyla para zayıflığını engellemeye çalışacaklar” dedi. “Ama sonra Asya merkez bankaları geri adım atacak ve altı ay içinde EM Asya büyük performans gösterecek.”

Nordvig’e göre, Çin Halk Bankası’nın daha fazla tırmanmanın önlenmesi için 6.80 civarındaki dolar-yuan döviz kurunu sabitlemeye çalışıp çalışmadığı önemli değil. Yetkili, Avrupa Merkez Bankası Başkanı Mario Draghi‘nin, 26 Ocak’taki politika toplantısında,  ABD dolarına yönelik Amerikan girişimlerinin Frankfurt’ta oldukça popüler olmadığı yönündeki adımlar atıldığını söyledi.

Bloomberg Dolar Spot Endeksi, Mart ayından bu yana en fazla yüzde 0,8 seviyesine geriledi. euro 2:14 itibariyle% 0.8 artışla 1.1730 dolar oldu.

ABD’nin  para birimi savaşı yapıp yapmadığı sorulduğunda, Hazine Bakanlığı bu yorumu reddetti.

Credit Suisse Group AG’nin küresel FX ticaret stratejisi yöneticisi Shahab Jalinoos, “Şu anda ABD  başkanı , yabancı ülkelerin rekabetçi oranlarda döviz kurlarını manipüle ettiğini açıkça öne sürdüğü için, para birimi savaşı olarak tanımlanmaktadır.” Dedi.

Hülya Karahan

istabulpostcomtr@gmail.com

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