Trump’un Kazanacaklar Ve Kaybedecekler Listesi Yayınlandı Türkiye’de Var

hhhAmerikan hükümetinin uluslararası kalkınma kurumu USAID’in eski yöneticilerinden biri olan Josh Cohen, Reuters haber ajansı için “Donald Trump başkanlığında kazanacaklar ve kaybedecekler” başlıklı bir analiz yazısı kaleme aldı.Josh Cohen’in yazısında Türkiye, “Trump iktidarında kazanacaklar” arasında yer alıyor.

Cohen, Trump’ın başkanlık döneminde kaybedenlerin Rusya ve NATO olacağını savunuyor: Rusya, Trump’ın Putin’e övgüleri nedeniyle, NATO ise seçilmiş başkanın ABD’nin NATO’ya gereğinden fazla ödenek ayırıp diğer üye ülkelerin yükünü çektiği inancında olduğu için kaybedenler tarafında yer alabilir.

Josh Cohen, 20 Ocak’taki yemin töreni öncesi, ‘diğer üç kazananı ve kaybedeni’ ise şöyle sıralıyor;

Meksika

Meksika’nın dışişleri bakanı, Trump’ın seçilmesini “tam anlamıyla bir felaket” olarak tanımlamıştı. Cohen’e göre, Donald Trump’ın kampanya sırasında söz verdiklerini yapması, Meksika ekonomisini gerilemeye götürebilir. Özellikle Trump’ın illegal Meksikalı göçmenleri sınırdışı edeceğini açıklaması ülkede endişe yaratmış durumda. Cohen’e göre, milyonlarca insanın ülkeye geri dönmesi, yoksulluğu artırıp, işsizlik ve suçu “patlatabilir”.

Japonya

Cohen’e göre, Trump’ın başkanlığında Japonya iki cephede kaybedebilir. Bunlardan biri Japonya Başbakanı Shinzo Abe’nin imzası olan Trans-Pacific Ortaklığı. Trump, şubat ayında imzalanan ve 12 ülkenin içinde bulunduğu ortaklığı “felaket” olarak tanımlamış, TPP’den ayrılma sözü vermişti. Bunun uzun dönemde Japon ekonomisine ciddi etkileri olacağını ifade eden Josh Cohen, Japonya ile Amerika arasındaki askeri işbirliğinin de tehlikede olduğunu yazdı.
ABD’nin 45. başkanı seçilen Donald Trump’ın, Japonya-Amerika askeri anlaşmalarını ‘Japonya lehine tek taraflı’ olarak gördüğünü yazan Cohen, Trump’ın “Tokyo, Japonya’daki Amerikan üsleri konusunda daha fazla ödeme yapmak zorunda” açıklamasının altını çiziyor.

Maldivler

Cohen’e göre, Trump iktidarından en fazla etkileneceklerin başında küçük bir Hint Okyanusu ülkesi olan ve deniz seviyesinden yalnızca 2.4 metre yükseklikte olan Maldivler geliyor. Donald Trump’ın “İklim değişikliği bir Çin oyunu” açıklamasıyla tavrını ortaya koyduğu çevre politikası, bu küçük Hint Okyanusu adasını sular altında bırakmayacak belki ama uzun dönemde kaderini önemli ölçüde etkileyecek.

KAZANANLAR
İsrail
Josh Cohen’e göre Trump yönetiminin şu ana kadarki açıklamaları ile İsrail’de Netanyahu yönetiminin bölgesel politikaları ile birebir uyuşuyor.

Trump’ın üst düzey danışmanları, “Batı Şeria’daki yerleşimlerin barış için bir engel olmadığını” açıklamıştı. Cohen’e göre daha da önemlisi, Trump’ın İsrail’in de şiddetle karşı çıktığı İran-Amerika nükleer anlaşmasında İsrail’in pozisyonuna yakın olması.

Mısır ve Türkiye

Cohen’in analizine göre, Türkiye Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Trump’ın seçilmesinin Türkiye’nin yararına olacağı görüşüne kendini hazırlamış durumda. Donald Trump’ın 15 Temmuz darbe girişimi sonrası Erdoğan’ın politik rakiplerini alt etmesini övdüğünü yazan Josh Cohen, Trump yönetiminin Fethullah Gülen’in iadesi konusundaki tutumunun da Türkiye’yi sevindirdiği yorumunu yaptı.

Josh Cohen’e göre Trump başkanlığındaki bir diğer kazanan da Mısır Devlet Başkanı Abdülfettah el Sisi olacak. Trump’ın seçildikten sonra konuştuğu ilk yabancı lider olan Sisi’yi Amerika’ya davet ettiği ve ona “terörizmle savaş” konusunda verdiği desteğe teşekkür ettiği biliniyor.

Avrupa’daki aşırı sağcı politikacılar

Josh Cohen’in analizine göre, Avrupa’nın büyük kısmı Trump seçimini şok olarak karşılarken, eski kıtadaki aşırı sağ politikacılar bu seçimden büyük mutluluk duyuyor.

Macaristan’ın giderek otoriterleşen lideri Viktor Orban, Trump’ın başkanlığını “muhteşem bir haber” olarak değerlendirmişti.

İngiltere’nin Avrupa Birliği’nde ayrılması ile sonuçlanan Brexit referandumunda öne çıkan Birleşik Krallık Bağımsızlık Partisi’nin (UKIP) eski lideri Nigel Farage da Trump’ı New York’taki plazasında ziyaret eden ilk isimlerden biriydi.

 

 

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