US Consumer Expectations for Short-Term Inflation

According to the April monthly survey released by the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York on the 10th, US consumers will experience inflation in the short term despite economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis It turns out that we do not expect the high progress to continue.

Inflation expectations for the year ahead were at a median of 3.4%, up from 3.2% in March, the highest level since September 2013. On the other hand, inflation expectations three years from now remained unchanged at 3.1%.

The housing boom is expected to continue, driven by growing demand and low interest rates due to the spread of telecommuting, and the median outlook for the rate of increase in housing prices over the next year reached a record high.

The outlook for the rate of increase in rent over the next year has also expanded to 9.5% for the fifth straight month, reaching a record high.

On the other hand, gasoline prices have slowed down from 9.9% in March, with a median growth rate of 9.2% over the next year.

Expectations for income growth declined regardless of age group or education level, reaching a median of 2.4% in April. It was 2.8% in March. Expectations for spending growth were 4.6% in April, a slight slowdown from the highest level in six years, 4.7% in March.

The survey was conducted on about 1,300 households in the United States.