Bank of America Predicts that “Scheme” will Fall By 0.6% Tonight’s “Horror Data”

In the past three months, Bank of America’s predictions on retail sales data have been almost 100% successful. Since the spring of this year, for the monthly retail sales forecasts, Bank of America has not only been ahead of the market but also has a very high accuracy rate. Below is a comparison between Bank of America and Bloomberg’s June-August retail sales data.

In the past forecasts, the views of Bank of America are often different from the general market views. For the upcoming September US retail sales data, Bank of America once again made a different voice. The market generally predicts that US retail sales will fall by 0.2% in September, while Bank of America’s forecast is about three times worse than the former. The auto industry’s data will be flat instead of rebounding 0.4% as expected.

According to data from Bank of America, retail sales in September, excluding car sales, and seasonally adjusted retail sales were the same as last month.

In the previous two months, due to various special reasons, retail sales have fluctuated sharply. Bank of America predicts that, taking into account the decline in car sales to 12.2 million (a seasonally adjusted annual rate), retail sales will eventually fall by 0.6% from the previous month.

Although the numbers predicted by the Bank of America are not much different from the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, there is always a gap, and people are always particularly sensitive to these numbers.

In any case, Bank of America chief economist Michelle Meyer believes that this month’s report should give us a clearer understanding of consumers.

In the retail sector other than automobiles, expenditures in the furniture and building materials industries have rebounded, which means that the housing sales industry has reversed. Bank of America also found that ticket sales have also begun to increase and remain stable every week, and the airline industry is working to offset the sharp drop in August. However, hotel expenditures have continued to decrease (travel-related expenditures are not included in the total retail sales other than cars).

Also in September, daycare center expenditures were 52% higher than last year, and only 13% lower than the peak period in 2019. This is undoubtedly good news, because reliable childcare services are critical to whether labor can return to work.

Although retail sales may not be in line with everyone’s guess, the changes will not be too drastic. The good news is that overall consumption in the United States remains strong, and people’s spending on leisure has increased, especially spending on tourism and entertainment has improved. According to the Bank of America’s statistics on its own customers, total leisure spending has increased by 1% in two years.

However, this improvement is not reflected in the United States. In New York and Pennsylvania, entertainment expenditures have fallen by 20% and 12% in two years, while Florida has increased by 16% in two years.

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Bank of America Predicts that "Scheme" will Fall By 0.6% Tonight's "Horror Data" - /10

Summary

 In the past three months, Bank of America’s predictions on retail sales data have been almost 100% successful. Since the spring of this year, for the monthly retail sales forecasts, Bank of America has not only been ahead of the market but also has a very high accuracy rate.

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