Oil demand is Estimated to Increase By 6.3 Million Barrels Per Day Next Year
Platts Energy Information reported on November 24 that the latest report of S&P Global Platts Analytics stated that in 2021, global oil demand is estimated to increase by 6.3 million barrels per day per year, but the degree of recovery among different regions and even different oil products It will be very different; and although oil demand is expected to recover next year, it will still be 2.4 million barrels per day less than the level before the epidemic. The report also revised down the forecast for this year’s global oil demand from an annual decrease of 8.5 million barrels per day to an annual decrease of 8.7 million barrels per day, mainly due to the impact of the second wave of the global outbreak.
According to the report, the bank’s oil demand forecast for next year is based on global economic growth of 5% and oil prices between US$41-51 per barrel. The report believes that the development of vaccines will have a crucial impact on oil demand next year. If the vaccine can be successfully approved and quickly spread, the recovery of oil demand will be faster than expected. The report believes that the competition among various vaccines will begin in the first half of next year, but the popularization of vaccines is expected to wait until the second half of the year.
The report estimates that in 2021, US oil demand will increase by 1.7 million barrels per day, European oil demand will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day, and China’s oil demand is estimated to increase by 500,000 barrels per day. Compared with Western countries, the epidemic was relatively mild and concentrated in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the growth of mainland oil demand has stabilized.
The degree of recovery between different oil products is also different. Next year, global gasoline demand is estimated to increase by 10% or 2.4 million barrels per day, and diesel demand is estimated to increase by 5% or 1.3 million barrels per day. The demand for jet fuel, which has been hit hardest this year and has halved demand, accounts for only about 8% of global oil demand under normal circumstances, but next year demand is expected to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day per year, an increase of 37.5%. Compared with the previous normal level, it will still be reduced by about 20%.
The report pointed out that there are still many doubts about the growth of global oil demand next year, including Sino-US trade tensions and the formal Brexit of the United Kingdom, which may damage oil demand. This winter, the warmer weather in the northern hemisphere is expected to also affect oil demand; and because of the global epidemic. And the restricted international business and leisure travel, even if the vaccine is officially available next year, it may not be able to restore everything to normal immediately.
The latest monthly report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered the forecast of global oil demand for 2020 by 300,000 barrels/day from the previous month, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic; the global oil demand in 2020 is expected to decrease by 9.8 million barrels/day, and the global oil demand in 2021 Demand is estimated to increase by 6.2 million barrels per day per year, which is also lower than the previous month’s estimate by 300,000 barrels per day.
According to the monthly report of the International Energy Agency, due to the second wave of severe outbreaks in the United States and Europe, the global oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter has been lowered by 1.2 million barrels per day from the previous month. This is down 700,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The latest estimate is that global oil demand in 2020 will decrease by 8.8 million barrels per day, compared with the previous month’s estimate of 8.4 million barrels per day; the growth of global oil demand in 2021 is estimated to increase by 5.5 million barrels per day. , Raised to an annual increase of 5.8 million barrels per day.