Worldwide Autonomous-Ready Vehicles Could Reach 745,705 Units in 2023

In 2023, three years later, more than 740,000 vehicles are expected to drive autonomous vehicles worldwide.

 

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According to Gartner, the number of vehicles with hardware that enables autonomous driving without human supervision worldwide will increase from 13,129 vehicles in 2018 to 74,705 vehicles in 2023.

The total growth of autonomous vehicles in 2019 is expected to reach 33,932 units. This growth is most prominent in countries such as North America, China, and Western Europe, where regulations on self-driving technology were first introduced.

“Total growth” means the annual increase in the number of vehicles with autonomous hardware. It is not a representation of the actual number of vehicles sold, but rather the total number of autonomous vehicles.

There are no high-end autonomous vehicles in the world that go beyond research and development. There are vehicles with limited autonomous driving, but still rely on human supervision.

Nevertheless, most vehicles are equipped with hardware such as cameras, radar, or lidar sensors that can support full autonomous driving. Autonomous vehicles can achieve higher levels of autonomous performance through over-the-air (OTA) software updates.

Gartner classifies these vehicles as ‘autonomous-ready’ vehicles.

Although autonomous vehicles are expected to grow rapidly, the total growth of commercial autonomous vehicles is expected to be absolutely low compared to the sales of autonomous vehicles for consumers in their class.

The number of vehicles equipped with hardware capable of implementing autonomous driving without human supervision in the consumer sector is expected to reach 32,682 in 2020, while the number of autonomous vehicles in the commercial sector is expected to be 1,590.

 

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Regulations for the Development of Autonomous Vehicles
At present, no country has regulations that permit the legal operation of autonomous vehicles that are ready for production, which is a major obstacle to the development and use of autonomous vehicles.

Companies will not launch autonomous vehicles until they can be sure that it is legal to operate them without human supervision. It may take years, but as more and more standardized regulations surrounding the use of autonomous vehicles are expected, the production and launch of autonomous vehicles will soar.

High sensor hardware cost
By 2026, the cost of sensors needed to implement autonomous driving will be reduced by approximately 25% compared to 2020.

Even if there is a decrease, sensor costs will still remain excessively high. In other words, advanced autonomous driving is expected to be limited to premium vehicles or mobility service vehicles over the next 10 years.

Robo-taxi for research and development with advanced autonomous performance ranges from $ 300,000 to $ 400,000 per unit. Advanced rider devices, sensors for these advanced autonomous vehicles, can cost up to $ 75,000 each. It may be. That’s double the average consumer car price. As a result, advanced autonomous vehicle technology is not readily available in the mainstream market at this time.

Public Safety Awareness Drives Growth of Autonomous Vehicle Market
The safety issue taken over between cars and humans is a major obstacle to the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles. Currently, autonomous vehicle’s cognitive algorithm is still slightly behind the human driver’s cognitive ability.

Significant investment is being made in developing the cognitive system of autonomous vehicles, and more than 50 companies are currently developing a system that can realize the safety level of commercialization. Gartner predicts that by 2025, these systems will be able to deliver better performance than human drivers.

To accelerate this innovation, technology companies are using artificial intelligence-based simulation software to study how cars respond to a variety of situations. This allows companies to obtain thousands of miles of vehicle test data in hours. The actual test run takes weeks of data.

 

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Reviewer overview

740,000 Autonomous Vehicles World Wide Increased by 2023 - /10

Summary

In 2023, three years later, more than 740,000 vehicles are expected to drive autonomous vehicles worldwide.

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