“Stock Market” Depression Before…

In October, US stocks  may squat first and then jump. Regardless of whether it is a rebound or a rise in the future, the key point is that stock selection is more important than market selection. The right stock selection will be more important than the index.

Looking at the past, U.S. stocks may have fallen slightly one month before the U.S. presidential election, reflecting the rise and fall before the election and investors’ wait-and-see atmosphere. However, the sharp drop in U.S. stocks one month before the election often makes it difficult for the current president to be re-elected. Trump was hospitalized with the covid-19, and he can still remotely control government officials, gain news and sympathy, and do his best to fight for re-election.

Trump’s pandemic, U.S. stocks add short-term variables

Since the US stock market has fallen for a while in September, it is inferred that Trump’s re-election should be vigorously long for the US stock market in October. It is expected that the US stock market should still be expected.

1. If the U.S. stock market is revised down for 3 weeks from September 3, it has already reflected that Biden’s election is unfavorable to the financial market. Starting from the rebound on September 25, it may rebound for 5 days as the fourth week rebound. From October 2 to next week due to Trump’s infection, the fifth week (wave) fell 3~5 days or 5~8 days of correction (it seems to have just completed the correction of 5 small bands), making the U.S. stock market in October first squat A jump is also possible, and then it may go up for another 3~5 weeks to mid-to-late October, waiting for the presidential election to show a wait-and-see atmosphere, as shown in the figure below, a daily chart of Nasdaq stock price.

2. Or the US stock market fell from September 3 and rebounded directly on September 25 for 3 to 5 weeks, defying the impact of Trump’s infection; the reasons are: 1. Perhaps Trump has recovered well these days or even discharged from hospital, shaping Become a hero in the fight against the epidemic; 2. Or the House of Representatives passed a new round of fiscal stimulus, and US stocks performed even stronger, rising to mid-to-late October before consolidating.

3. Unless there is a force majeure factor or a major negative, including Trump’s life safety, everyone is more panicked about the new crown pneumonia, and the US stock market plummets directly, then it is another matter.

Take the Nasdaq index as an example. Even if there is still a possibility of backtesting in early October, it is expected that it will not fall sharply and fall below the 10,000-point barrier before the US presidential election. Even after the recent correction, it may still rise again. (A new high) or a rebound (but a new high), as shown in the figure below on the daily chart of the Nasdaq index. The estimated trend is based on the analysis of the above scenario one, temporarily excluding the third possibility.

Electronic stocks have fallen sharply. As long as the US stocks rebound, the three major legal entities and investors will grab the rebound, so electronic stocks dare to rise and fall. Of course, when US stocks fall, especially when the fee and the Nasdaq index fall, electronic stocks will also fall.

U.S. retail inventories are lower than historical levels, and retailers are replenishing their livelihood commodity inventories, making it hard to find a container for container shipping. It is expected that the container shipping industry will be in good shape next year and the profit will exceed market expectations in the next two years; recent container shipping stock prices It may be only a correction wave in the initial uptrend.

Affected by Trump’s covid-19, it is beneficial to stocks such as epidemic prevention and epidemic detection. The stock price may have a chance to perform in the near future, depending on whether the Trump epidemic is serious or not and the recovery situation. The short-term can be short-term, but the risk must be controlled.

 

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