Gold has neared record highs over the past two weeks, amid fears of a surge in the price of oil following the OPEC decision, mixed expectations about the Fed’s next move, and worries about the banking crisis that continues to reverberate in the United States.

Analysts and investment banks are betting that gold is close to reaching a new record.

The price of gold rose by 2% by the end of the week, reaching the level of 2,023.70 in the futures contracts due in the month of June.

During the past week, the dollar index fell to its lowest level in two months, below the level of 102, after a violent decline in Treasury bond yields.

However, during Friday, the labor market data was released, which showed that the market enjoyed strength despite the Fed’s measures, and the dollar index continued to rise, but gold did not react due to the closure of its market due to a global holiday.

According to some analysts, if the US dollar finds some momentum, it could prompt investors to take some profits from their bullish bets on gold.

Barchart analysts believe that the dollar may try to form a short-term bullish trend, and this usually ends with a decline in the dollar and strengthening of gold, but gold may face some difficulties next week.

TDS analysts believe that gold is giving positive long-term signals to momentum indicators, but given the strength of labor market data, these signals may lose some steam.

Fed rate hike expectations were boosted by the release of the labor market data, and TDS analysts say the failure of futures contracts to hold on to the 2026 level will result in a modest decline in long (long) positions in gold.

Aside from the jobs report, analysts note that next week’s inflation data may also provide some support for the US dollar. Economists said that a strong labor market and persistently high inflation may force the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.

Analysts say that even if the Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting, the rules of the game will not change much for the price of gold, but it will disrupt gold‘s march towards records.

“There are strong reasons why we are trading at these levels. We are witnessing a great diversification of precious metals due to the great uncertainties in the world,” he said.

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As for the spot gold price, Sunil Kumar Dixit, chief technical strategist at SKCharting, said: “The spot price reaching $2025 confirms the continuation of the bullish trend that dominated gold this week, and reminds us that the next stop is at $2040, which is the futures level. It’s already been hacked.”

“The next leg of the rally at $2060 will bring us closer to a record high that looks more and more certain by the day. But if we fail to hold the levels above $2010, we will push towards the $2000 and $1990 support areas in the spot market,” Dixit added.

When does gold go to a new high?

Sunil Kumar Dixit, chief technical strategist at SKCharting.com, says further decline in the dollar index, towards the 100-week simple moving average of 100.20, would be beneficial for gold to reach a new peak. And he said:

“The continued weakness of the dollar index below the 5-day exponential moving average, (EMA), dynamically centered at 101.70 remains valid. If the situation changes, it could provide relief for the dollar, until it recovers towards the Bollinger Band of the daily average at 102.60.”

“A break below the latest low at 101.09 could prompt a quick drop to 100.68 and 100.20. These two levels will greatly help in gold’s pursuit of a record high.”

He added, “We see the decline in yields towards 3.15 and 3.05 as ideal conditions for gold’s bullish trend towards a retest of $2,070, and a breakout towards $2,090-2,140.”

And with the market data on Friday, Dixit sees the dollar index rising to 101,737:

“This will result in gold going through a short-term correction, towards the $1,970 to $1,960 support areas, before any new attempt to rise.”