India: Growth Picks up Again in April-June, 8.2%

The growth of the Indian economy has confirmed its sharp acceleration in the April-June quarter, according to official figures released Friday.

The South Asian giant’s GDP grew 8.2% in the first quarter of its current fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2018 to March 31, 2019.

This figure is higher than the 7.6% forecast of a panel of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In the previous quarter (January-March), India had recorded growth of 7.7%.

A sustained growth rate is vital for the government of the Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi, who came to power in 2014 with the promise of boosting the economy and who will return to the polls early next year.

“The economy has shown resilience to external fluctuations in oil prices and the depreciation of the rupee,” said Sujan Hajra, chief economist at Anand Rathi Securities.

“In general, thanks to a good monsoon, a drop in inflation levels and solid economic fundamentals in place, India has no reason to worry,” he added.

The Indian economy is definitely away from the bad end of 2016 and early 2017, when it had suffered the blow of two successive shocks.

Initially heavily affected by the sudden withdrawal of 500 and 1,000 rupees (6.3-12.6 euros) at the end of 2016, which had caused a shortage of cash throughout the country, it had crossed a new zone of turbulence a few months later with the chaotic implementation of the new harmonized VAT.

Based on the constant price of 2011-12, the country’s GDP in the first quarter of 2018-19 was recorded at Rs 33.74 lakh crore, which was Rs 31.18 lakh crore in the first quarter of last year. In this way, 8.2 percent growth rate has been recorded. Explain that the government had changed the base year from the year 2004-05 to 2011-12 for GDP calculation in 2015.

Gross Value Added (GVA) Growth Rate is 8% in the first quarter of the current financial year. Explain that the picture of economic activity of a country is clear with the view of consumers and demand from the GDP, whereas in contrast, manufacturers of GVA have a clear picture of economic activity.

The good thing for the economy is that in the April-June quarter, the GDP growth rate is better than expected. Economists of Reuters had estimate this quarter’s 7.6 percent GDP growth.

With the latest GDP data, India’s mediocrity has become safe and secure in the fastest growing economy in the world. China has recorded a 6.7 percent GDP growth in the second quarter. Explain that the financial calendar is applicable from January to December in China, whereas in India the financial calendar runs from April to March.

Earlier this year, according to World Bank statistics, India has won the sixth largest economy of the world by defeating France with an economy of 2.6 trillion dollars this year.

On the other hand, the annual report issued on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India for 2017-18 has expressed the hope that the economic growth in the full fiscal year 2018-19 will be 7.4 percent.