Goldman Sachs And JP Morgan Raise Turkey’s Growth Prediction

Hülya Karahan

Goldman Sachs revised Turkey’s 2017 growth estimate from 2.3 percent to 1.8 percent.

US investment banking giants Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have announced that Turkey has raised growth estimates for this year.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have revised Turkey’s upcoming growth forecasts for the upcoming year following the announcement of growth figures for 2016, which the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) announced today.

Goldman Sachs’in the statement, 1.3 percent in the third quarter last year, following the contraction of 3.5 percent in the last quarter of the growth rate is caught, while the last quarter of the Bank’s growth rate of 1.1 percent than the growth outlook noted.

According to the statement, the Turkish economy is expected to grow by 2.9 percent last year, leaving behind expectations, the bank expects growth for 2017 from 1.8 percent to 2.3 percent, and the economy in the first quarter of this year is 2 percent, It is reported that 6 growth is expected.

Consumer spending has increased by 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, despite the statement that it is estimated that consumption will be limited in Turkey due to political uncertainty and weakening in the Turkish lira.

In the statement, it is pointed out that the biggest improvement is in exports, while exports, which contracted by 1.9 percent and 9.3 percent in the second and third quarters of last year, respectively, rose 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter.

It is emphasized that the export will continue to be an important factor of growth in the future periods. Despite the sharp decline in tourism, it has been stated that the service sector is not affected by this.

Another US investment banking giant, JPMorgan Chase, also announced that Turkey’s growth forecast for 2017 will increase from 1.8 percent to 2.6 percent.

“Although the political uncertainty continues, the growth data announced today is strong in terms of the Turkish economy,” the bank statement said.

It was noted that the political uncertainty could end after a referendum on 16 April, in which case the economic performance could rise further and the inflow of foreign capital into the country could increase.

London-based international independent research firm Capital Economics has also announced that Turkey’s growth forecast for this year has risen from 1.8 per cent to 2.5 per cent.

In a statement from Capital Economics, consumer spending rose strongly in the fourth quarter to 5.7 percent after a 1.7 percent decline in the third quarter of last year.

In the statement, the strong increase in exports and the rise in investments are pointed out, indicating that the Turkish economy is expected to grow by 2.5 percent next year.