Petrol Piyasalarında Neler Oluyor

Avrupa Brent ham petrolü bu yıl varil başına 78 dolara yükseldi. ABD merkezli WTI ham petrolü varili 70 dolar seviyesinde tutmaya çalışıyor. Gerçekten de, her iki fiyat da 2016 yılının başından bu yana dip seviyesinden yukarı tırmanıyor.
OPEC‘in iki yılın daha iyi bir kısmı için sınırlı bir tedarik arz ettiği ve “Suudi Arabistan‘ın, halka arzını desteklemek için bu kesintileri kabul ettiği” gibi “siyah altın” güçlendi.
Bütçe baskıları OPEC’in sıkı politikalarını gevşetmesine yol açarken, İran’ın nükleer anlaşmasının geri çekilmesi ve Venezüella’daki gerilemenin bir araya gelmesi petrol fiyatları adeta bir patlama etkisi yarattı.
Bu, petrol talebi tahribatının genellikle beklemeye başladığı kilit bir fiyat olan varil başına 80 doların üzerinde bir risk taşıdı.
Uzmanlar, OPEC’in arzusu, petrol fiyatlarının en uygun fiyatta tutulması yani, güçlü gelirleri korumak için yeterince yüksek fiyatlar olsa da, talebi azaltmaya ve satışları azaltmaya başlayacak kadar yüksek olmamalıdır diyor. Şimdiye kadar, kartelin bu güzel çizgiyi yönetmek için ortaya çıktını belirtiyor.
Petrol talebi, yükselen fiyatların ana sürücüsü olarak güçlenmeye devam etti. Son ekonomik genişlemenin yavaşlamasıyla birlikte talep yavaşlamaya başlar yorumları yapılıyor. Bu nedenle, petrol talebinin, iyileşmekten ziyade daha da kötüye gitmeye devam eden Ortadoğu gerilimlerini sürdürdüğüne inanılırsa, büyük ölçüde engellenebilir. Dahası, ABD, İran’ı sabote etmeye devam edecek deniliyor.
Kısa vadeli etki fiyatlarda yıkıcı bir artış olabileceği, ardından olumsuz bir hisse senedi piyasası reaksiyonu izlenebileceği, ardından petrol fiyatlarında düşüş yaşanabileceği belirtiliyor.
Uzmanlar Sadece son 20 yılda petrol fiyatlarının Orta Doğu’daki arz kesintilerine nasıl tepki verdiğine bakmak zorunluluğu olduğu, petrol fiyatlarının artması ve borsa piyasalarının düşmesiyle birlikte, tüm kısa vadeli etkilerin sözkonusu olduğunu söylüyor.
Orta Doğu’daki bozulmaya ek olarak, ABD’dekil üretim de petrol fiyatlarındkia bir faktör olarak tırmanmaya devam ediyor. İran ve Venezüella’daki arz zorluklarının jeopolitik gerginliklerle birlikte kısa vadede daha yüksek fiyat ve volatiliteyi desteklemeye devam etmesine rağmen petrol fiyatlarının e 2019’a girmeye başladığında ılımlı seyretmeye başlayacağı belirtiliyor.
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