Who Wins the China-US Trade War?

The China-US trade war has continued to heat up. Since the United States announced that it will raise the tariff imposed on 200 billion US dollars of Chinese products from 10% to 25%, China immediately announced that it will take countermeasures. Xie Jinhe, chairman of Caixin Media, said today  who will win this trade war? He does not have a standard answer, but from the figures of the four financial markets, it seems to gradually emerge.

Xie Jinhe today on the face of sensitive stock market, foreign exchange market performance, market panic atmosphere, market capitalization of the largest stocks to observe the changes in China-US trade war, he believes that behind this trade war is actually an economic war.

First, from the stock market, Xie Jinhe said that by August 3, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.45%, Nasdaq rose 13.02%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 10.03%, and Russell 2000’s Small Cap Index rose 9.54. %, all major US indexes rose; on the other hand, China’s Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets all fell, with Shanghai A shares falling 17.12%, Shenzhen A shares down 21.78%, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index down 17.75%.

In the year of 2018, the Taiwan stock market was relatively partial. The weighted index rose by 3.47%, the OTC index rose by 1.52%, and the Motai index rose by 4.08%. “Under the US-China Boss, the performance of Taiwan stocks is very valuable.”

Followed by the performance of the foreign exchange market, Xie Jinhe said that the US dollar was strong this year, the US dollar index rose from 88.253 to 94.672, and the exchange rate of the RMB was low. The offshore RMB (CNH) on the 3rd had reached 6.9017, and the onshore RMB (CNY) also reached 6.886. It seems that there is a tendency to break the 7th. “The depreciation of the renminbi has eased the pressure of trade wars, but there are also recoils for capital outflows.”

The third is the panic atmosphere of the market. The VIX index is still around 13 points. The China-US trade war is coming and going, but the financial market performance is very rational. Compared with the US stock market crash in February, VIX once rushed to 50.3. It seems that the market has no panic atmosphere. Trump recently accepted an interview with CNBC. The Sino-US trade war may lead to a decline in US stocks. He even said that the “Let’s fall!” seems not to be afraid.

Xie Jinhe said that the fourth is that as the largest market capitalization company in the United States, Apple has risen 26% this year, and its market value has broken through one trillion US dollars. Tencent, China’s largest new economic stock, has fallen from 476.6 Hong Kong dollars to 340.4 Hong Kong dollars this year, and its market value has fallen from 4.527 trillion Hong Kong dollars to 3.233 trillion yuan. The Hong Kong dollar has fallen more than 26% this year, showing a strong contrast.

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