Global COVID-19 Vaccine Market could be Worth Around US $ 40 Billion in 2021

Research firm Morningstar estimates in report finds it difficult to determine how big big pharma profits are given the nature still uncertain of the timing of vaccination and the duration of his campaign, global COVID-19 vaccine market could be worth around US $ 40 billion in 2021

Regardless of the state of play of major vaccine projects, which include Oxford-AstraZeneca, Pfizer-BioNTech, Novavax and Merck, one thing is clear, Morningstar mentions: a large-scale vaccination campaign will “make it easier.” the recovery of the US economy, whose workers and businesses are heavily mortgaged by the effects of the pandemic.

“We believe, based on current projects (and a manufacturing capacity of the leaders hovering around one billion doses), that we will see a massive vaccination campaign in the first half of 2021, which would facilitate the recovery economic ”, wrote the firm in a report which constitutes the update of an analysis carried out last May.

“Overall, we anticipate several vaccine approvals by early 2021, leading to large-scale vaccination in developed markets by mid-year,” Morningstar continued. In the third quarter alone, five vaccine projects will have started phase 3 trials, each with a pool of 30,000 patients, with three more scheduled for the fourth quarter.

Of the potential sales of $ 40 billion, $ 11 billion would come from the US government and its Operation Warp Speed, which aims to fund large pharmaceutical companies to develop a vaccine faster than it normally would. On its own, however, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine project could represent sales of 17 billion, reports the Morningstar report, which specifies that Pfizer has planned an investment much lower than that in research and preparation: a billion.

The research firm’s analysis echoes thinking about the extent of the post-pandemic recovery. To this question, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, already argued last May that we would first need the confidence of the population, which implies first the discovery of an effective vaccine.

The US economy, first in the world ahead of China, Japan and Germany, could be heading for a 4.9% decline in 2020 followed by a tentative 2% rebound in 2021, according to the baseline scenario of the Conference Board in the United States. The current unemployment rate stands at 10.2%. At Desjardins Group, a 4.6% drop is forecast this year and a 3.6% gain in 2021, which takes into account a vaccination campaign.

“We’re swimming a bit in the unknown,” said Desjardins Group chief economist François Dupuis in an interview. “We trust what we hear a little. We think that with all the means deployed, we should come up with something by the spring of 2021, or by the summer. But there are a lot of ifs. The vaccine has to be effective, but then you have to vaccinate people, which is no small task considering the number of people. ”

The recovery will be “a little bumpy” until the vaccine is released. The last few weeks have seen a rally, yes, but it’s just the “rebound,” said Dupuis. “We are entering a period when it will be slower. […] Already the economy is uncertain and complex, but in addition we are talking about medical advances that would allow an even more marked rebound, we add an even lower probability. “

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Global COVID-19 Vaccine Market could be Worth Around US $ 40 Billion in 2021

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