George Friedman: Darbeyi Püskürten Türkiye Dünyanın Süper Gücü Olacak

resimmmHülya Karahan

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“Başarısızlıkla sonuçlanan darbe önümüzdeki yüzyılda Türkiye’yi dünyanın süper gücü haline getirecek.” Bu sözlerin sahibi ABD’li ünlü siyaset bilimcisi George Friedman.

 

Peki kimdir George Friedman? Amerikalı ünlü siyaset bilimci, gölge CIA olarak bilinen, yayınladığı analiz ve verdiği haberlerle hep bir adım önde bulunan, ABD savunma bakanlığına danışmanlık yapan, Stratfor adlı think thank kuruluşunun sahibi. Fridman Türkiye’de püskürtülen başarısız kanlı darbenin ardından kaleme aldığı makalesinde, “kitabımda da belirtmiştim. Türkiye önümüzdeki 100 yılda dünyanın bölgesel süper gücü olacak diyor. Bu yaşanan son yolaylar (15 Temmuz‘da kalkışılan darbe girişimi) bunun en büyük tetikleyicisi oldu.” Friedman’a göre bölgesel güç olma yolunda ilerleyen bir millet üzerinde büyük bir baskı oluşur. Dışarıdan gelen baskılar içeriye doğru akar baskı hem dışarıdan hem içeriden oluşunca sosyal ve siyasal fay kırılmaları meydana gelir. Yaşanan darbe girişimi ve ardından diktatörlük iddiası “kırılan fay hatlarıdır.”
George Friedman Tarih boyunca dünyada da bunun örneklerinin görüldüğünü söylüyor ve  yaşananların ardından Türkiye’nin nasıl süper güç olma yolunda ilerleyeceğine de  ABD ve Japonya’yı örnek gösteriyor. Bu iki ülkenin nasıl küresel güç olarak ortaya çıktıklarını anlatıyor:

 

Amerika – Meksika savaşı, ABD’yi Kuzey Amerika’da Bölgesel güç haline getirdi. Savaş aynı zamanda sanayileşmenin erken aşamalarına da yol açtı, demir yolları, telgraf ve hidrokarbon fabrikalarına geni bir güç getirdi, ticaretin doğası değişti.
Kuzeyde ekonomik ve sosyal sistemleri evrim geçirdi gelişti. Ancak, Güney kendi plantasyon tabanlı ekonomi ve sosyal sistemini korumak istedi. Bu da  sonunda iç savaşa yol açtı. Bazıları iç savaş ABD’nin bölgesel güç statüsünü sona ereceğini düşündü. Ama bu görüş yanlış oldu. 1865’ler de, ABD ekonomisi küresel güç olmaya başladı. Büyük trajediler yaşansa da, iç savaş, ABD’nin seyrini değiştirmedi, insanlar gemiyi terk etmedi; yeni gerçeklerle baş etmek için kendi kumaşını yırttı ve bununla yeni bir güç yapısı oluşturdu.
George Friedman ayrıca yaşadığı trajik savaştan sonra Japonya’nın endüstride nasıl süper güç haline geldiğini de anlatıyor yazısında:

 

19. yüzyılın sonlarında sanayileşmiş olarak önemli bir güç haline gelen Japonya’nın yolculuğunu düşünün. Japonya Rusya’yı mağlup ettikten sonra sosyal yapı oldukça statik kalırken, ekonomisi hızla gelişti. Yani bir liberal anlayış iş dünyası ile muhafazakar ordu arasında gerginliğe yol açtı. Japonya’nın bölgesel ve ekonomik güç olarak bu yeni rolü istikrarsızlık getirdi. Ardından askeri diktatörlük geldi. Türkiye’de 1990’ların sonlarında bu yana üç büyük fay hattı kırılması yaşadı.
Birincisi, hızlı ekonomik büyüme bir süreci oldu. Bu, mevcut elitler ve ekonomik gücün yeni merkezleri arasında gerginliğe neden oldu.
Aynı zamanda siyasi rekabeti teşvik etti. Bir tarafta, yeni bir ekonomik düzen AB pazarlarına ihracat ve erişim üzerinde duruldu. Öte yandan, eski ve daha az dinamik sistem kendini korumak için çalıştı.
İkincisi, siyasette İslam’ın rolünün sorun oldu. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, laik bir toplum olarak Türkiye’yi kurdu. Ama 2002 yılında, bölgenin dinamikleri değiştirdi. Dindar Müslümanlar daha fazla güç kazanmaya ve kendilerini savunmaya başladı.
Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’ın partisi AKP, kendilerini Müslüman toplum temsilcisi gördü. Laikliği korumanın anayasal sorumlulukları olduğunu düşünen ordu, (Türkiye bildiğim kadarıyla bu durumda olan tek ülke tek ülkedir), AKP’yi karşı karşıya geldi.
Üçüncüsü, Türkiye konomik ve siyasi güç olarak büyüdü. Bunun sonucunda kendini bölgesel çatışmaların ortasında buldu. AKP kendisini çatışmalardan uzak tutmaya çalıştı ama bu ABD ve diğer ülkeler ile gerilim yarattı.Türkiye Suriye, Irak, Balkanlar, Kafkasya ve Karadeniz’de kendini gerginliklerin ve anlaşmazlıkların hatta çatışmalrın ortasında buldu.
Analiz listesi daha çok uzun, yazını sonunda Friedman, “Ama bütün bunlar halkının başarısız olduğu anlamına gelmiyor, Türkiye Bölgesel süper güç olma yeteneğine sahip son zamanlarda yaşadığı olaylar,  Türkiye’nin kendi çıkarlarını koruma konusunda yeteneğini geliştirmesine neden olacak ve bu Türkiye’yi bölgesel süper güç haline getirecek.”

 

George Fridman’nın analiz ve kehanetleri böyle sıralanıp gidiyor; demek ki Amerika’dan işler böyle görünüyor. Ama buradan bizler neler yaşadık, soran yok. Bizler; sıradan Türkiye vatandaşları için o gece “15 Temmuz” gecesi; ellerinde silah olmayan sivil insanların üzerine hunharca kurşunların yağdığı gece, F 16 savaş uçakları tepemizden çok alçak uçtuğu, üzerimize bomba yağıyor zannettiğimiz, ki bir çok yerde zaten yağmış, F16 bombardıman uçaklarının yarattığı o dehşet sesleri duyan annelerin korkudan çocuklarının üzerine kapaklandığı gece.

 

Mister Friedman, Türkiye önümüzdeki 100 yılda süper güç olur mu olamaz mı bilemeyiz inşallah olur! Ama biz o gece (15 Temmuz) bunları yaşadık; bilmem haberiniz var mı?

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