Yaptırımlarla Boğuşan Rus Ekonomisinde Durum Ne

2017’de iki yıllık bir durgunluktan sonra Rusya, 2000’lerin başlarındaki patlamanın yüzde 6,8’lik büyümesinden hala uzak. Ancak 2018 yılına ilişkin görünüm, kademeli olarak iyileşme ve yüzde 2 gibi yüksek bir büyüme söz konusu.

Aralık ayında enflasyon yüzde 2,5 gibi düşük bir seviyede seyretti. İşsizlik ise yüzde 5,1 seviyesindeydi. 2016 yılında kişi başına düşen gelir, bazı Avrupa Birliği ülkeleriyle eşit olarak 22.540 dolar oldu.

Rusya pek dile getirmese de aslında ekonomiyi zorlayan aykırı faiz oranları. Merkez Bankası politika oranı hala yüzde 8 seviyesinde bu gelişmekte olan bir piyasa seviyesi. Ancak bunun da düşmesi bekleniyor ve 2018’de yüzde 4-5’e kadar düşebilir diyor uzmanlar.

Bununla birlikte, ekonomik iyileşme kırılgan ve derin yapısal reformların umutsuz ihtiyacı içinde.

Rusya piyasanın güdümlü büyüme modeli, 2013 yılına kadar Batı’nın Ukrayna ile olan çatışmasından, ABD’nin seçimlere karıştığı iddiaları üzerine yapılan ekonomik yaptırımlar ve histerilerden çok önce tükendi. Mart ayında yapılan devletbaşkanlığı seçimlerinin ardından Vladimir Putin altı yıl daha iktidarda olacak.

Putin’in ekonomik modeli en önemli icraatı oolacak ve Rusya’nın önümüzdeki on yıl için izleyeceği rotayı belirleyecek.

 

 

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